MISSILE DEFENSE PROPOSAL FOR EUROPE
2. The Threat Is Real And Growing
The pace of ballistic missile proliferation, and the threat this creates, is rapidly increasing. Consider these trends:
• In 1972, only nine states possessed ballistic missiles
• In 1990, as the Cold War was drawing to a close, 16 states possessed ballistic missiles of varying ranges
• By the end of 2006, the number increased to 25 states
The number of states that currently possess medium-, intermediate-, and/or intercontinental-range ballistic missiles (missiles that can reach our friends and allies, and in some cases the United States itself) has increased from five to nine. Clearly, the international security environment is more complex and less predictable since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
Of particular concern are the ballistic missile development and testing programs underway in North Korea and Iran, and their related proliferation activities.
On January 11, 2007, Lieutenant General Michael Maples, Director of the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, testifi ed to the U.S. Senate that “North Korea has an ambitious ballistic missile defense program and has exported missiles and missile technology to other countries, including Iran.” General Maples also pointed out that North Korea continues to develop and test the Taepo Dong 2 intercontinental ballistic missile and nuclear weapons, as evidenced by their well-publicized series of missile launches on July 4, 2006, and their nuclear test in October 2006.
On November 2, 2006, during the “Great Prophet II” exercise, Iran launched numerous short-range rockets as well as short- and medium-range ballistic missiles. Among the missiles launched was the Shahab-3, which has a 1,300 kilometer range and is capable of reaching Turkey and Tel Aviv.
Great Prophet II Starts With Launches From Jalnabad • Missiles launched as part of exercise during early hours of November 2, 2006 • Iranian TV showed: • Reported by Iranian government as “dozens” of launches with claims of cluster warheads
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The Iranian missile development program has received considerable assistance from Russian, Chinese, and North Korean entities. The Shahab-3 is based on the North Korean No Dong missile. Iranian offi cials have publicly claimed that a 2,000 kilometer range variant of the Shahab-3 is under development as well as a new solid-propellant medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM). That would provide Iran the capability to strike significant parts of southeastern and central Europe, Turkey, Israel, and U.S. and allied military bases in the Persian Gulf.
Iran is also seeking to develop medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) of increasing ranges, intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs), and possibly intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). The U.S. Intelligence Community assesses that with continued foreign assistance, Iran could be able to develop an ICBM capable of reaching the United States and all regions of Europe before 2015. Iran is also developing space launch vehicles – a key building block for an ICBM.
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A ballistic missile is a weapon that is launched from a fixed or mobile platform and follows a predictable arc towards its intended target. Ballistic missiles can travel anywhere from short distances (as little as 100 kilometers), to very long distances (10,000 kilometers or more). Depending on the missile design and sophistication, ballistic missiles can be armed with conventional explosives or weapons of mass destruction (nuclear, chemical, or biological payloads). |
Noting the strong international consensus regarding the missile threat, NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer stated after the April 19, 2007, North Atlantic Council meeting in Brussels, “there is absolutely a shared threat perception between the allies. Allies all agree that there is a threat from ballistic missiles.”
